Tariffs returned to mainstream policy faster than the economics defending them. The question is whether they build industry at home, or simply tax the people they are meant to help.
Deterrence only works if the other side believes it. Institutions disagree about how many troops the eastern flank needs, and about whether Article 5 would really be used. They read the same evidence and reach different answers.
The CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act are the biggest deliberate industrial programmes in forty years. There is now enough evidence to judge them, and institutions read that evidence very differently.
Taiwan and the South China Sea now shape defence planning in Washington, Beijing and Tokyo. Institutions disagree about how close the danger is, and about what would stop a war.
For seventy years European defence has depended on American equipment and American troops. The question now is how much of that Europe could replace, how fast, and at what price. Institutions disagree about whether the gap is money, factories, or command.
De-risking, friendshoring and decoupling mean different things and get used as if they were the same. Institutions disagree about which parts of the relationship can actually be undone, and what undoing them would cost.
Sanctions are now the standard answer to almost every crisis. They clearly impose costs. Whether they change what governments decide is far less clear than the policy debate suggests.
Wind and solar farms are being built faster than the power lines to carry what they produce. Institutions disagree about whether the grid is the real limit, or a symptom of slow planning and poor market rules.
Europe cut Russian pipeline gas faster than almost anyone expected. What to build instead is still open: gas terminals, wind and solar with storage, using less, or nuclear. Each choice ties Europe in for decades.
Europe has fallen further behind the United States for twenty years. The explanations do not agree: capital markets, energy prices, regulation, company size, or research that never reaches a product.
Controls on chips and chipmaking equipment are the strongest economic weapon the West has used in a decade. The argument is whether they buy years, or simply push China to build its own.
China has won solar, is winning batteries, and is competing hard on wind. Europe can subsidise its own industry, keep imports out, or buy cheap and cut emissions faster. This is the sharpest industrial argument in the field.
A carbon border tax charges imports for the emissions used to make them. Supporters say it is the only way to price carbon without pushing factories abroad. Critics say it is a tariff with a green label.
Machines are starting to help choose targets, and the rules are not keeping up. Some institutions treat this as a race to build the better system. Others treat it as something to limit by treaty.
A clean grid still needs power that runs when the wind drops. Some institutions say new nuclear is the only way to get it. Others say it is the most expensive way to buy what batteries will deliver sooner.
Cheap drones have made it dangerous to move and hard to hide. The question is whether that helps the defender for good, or only until defences against drones catch up. Armies are buying equipment on the answer.
A fund for climate damage was agreed in two years, and almost no money has been paid out. The argument is now about who can claim, who should pay, and whether it takes money away from preparing for the next disaster.
Steel, cement and chemicals cannot simply switch to electricity. Hydrogen is the main alternative and the most expensive one. Institutions disagree about how much of industry it can realistically reach.
Dozens of countries now spend more on repaying debt than on health. Institutions disagree about whether this is a short-term cash problem that new repayment terms can fix, or debt that can never be repaid.
The WTO's appeal court has not worked for years, and the biggest traders increasingly act outside the rules. Institutions divide between fixing it, replacing it, and accepting a world where trade is managed deal by deal.
France and Britain have nuclear weapons. Europe has none of its own. Institutions that agree about the threat still disagree about whether a shared European deterrent is possible, and what it would do to arms control.
Almost every plan to reach net zero includes capturing carbon. Almost every project so far has delivered less than promised. Institutions split between calling it essential and calling it a subsidy for burning more.
Central banks change their reserves slowly, but payment systems are changing fast. The question is whether sanctions have pushed countries away from the dollar, or only created alternatives nobody wants to hold.
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