Is NATO's deterrent still credible against Russia?
Deterrence works only if it is believed. The disagreement runs from force posture on the eastern flank to whether Article 5 would be invoked at all, and institutions reach different conclusions from much the same evidence.
26 institutions · 13 countries · 40 publications
Grouped by the country the institution sits in, because where it sits shapes what it concludes. Every title links to the institution's own page; nothing is reproduced here.
01
United States
8 institutions · 13 publicationsBrookings Institution
- Envisioning the Legal Fight over NATO WithdrawalPublication1 Sept 2026
- How can a ‘Europeanized NATO’ defend Europe with reduced American support?Publication24 Aug 2026
- What is the value of a ‘Europeanized NATO’ for the United States?Publication24 Aug 2026Michael E. O'Hanlon
- A fractured front? Inside the Ankara NATO summitPublication14 Jul 2026Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Mara Karlin, Thomas Wright
Atlantic Council
- Putin is escalating against NATO but a Baltic incursion remains unlikelyPublication17 Sept 2026James Rice
- In Al-Monitor, Yevgeniya Gaber comments on the Black Sea security architecture, saying closer coordination among the region’s NATO members are all the more importantPublication17 Sept 2026
- For better or for worse, NATO’s future could define Trump’s foreign policy legacyPublication28 Sept 2026AM Sir Christopher Harper, Hans Binnendijk
Center for Naval Analyses
- NATO’s Ankara Summit: The Indo-Pacific DimensionsPublication30 Aug 2026
Center for the National Interest
- The Attack That Doesn’t Trigger Article 5 (w/ Fergus Hay)Publication21 Sept 2026Jordan Henry
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
- Trump’s Iran crackdown collides with NATO ally seeking access to America’s prized fighter jetPublication2 Oct 2026Ahmad Sharawi, Sinan Ciddi
02
United Kingdom
3 institutions · 4 publicationsRoyal United Services Institute
- Options for a NATO Multinational Drone-Interception SquadronCommentary22 Sept 2026Justin Bronk, [object Object]
- Recording: The Atlantic Brief: US and European Perspectives on Nuclear DeterrenceBrief22 Sept 2026
Centre for European Reform
- National Security Strategy (Joint Committee): Deterrence in an age of Russian aggressionPublication17 Jul 2026
UK in a Changing Europe
- NATO at Ankara: meeting the ‘high minimum’Publication15 Jul 2026
03
Canada
2 institutions · 4 publicationsMacdonald-Laurier Institute
- Clarifying Canada’s role in NATO’s Arctic Sentry: Nicole J. JacksonPublication25 Aug 2026Skander Belouizdad
- Deterrence is cheaper than defence: Christopher Coates and Lt.-Col. Joel Maley on Inside Policy TalksPublication14 Aug 2026Daniel Dorman
- Turkey in NATO is a challenge with no easy solution: Alexander Lanoszka for Inside PolicyPublication20 Jul 2026Skander Belouizdad
C.D. Howe Institute
- As Canada Works Toward NATO Defence Spending Commitment, Fiscal Constraints LoomReport28 Sept 2026Raquel Schneider
04
Belgium
2 institutions · 3 publicationsFriends of Europe
- Ukraine is showing NATO the future of warfarePublication7 Jul 2026
- The NATO Summit in Ankara: moving towards the Alliance 3.0Publication7 Jul 2026
European Centre for International Political Economy
- The Black Sea Region – NATO’s Strategic TestPublication31 Aug 2026Natalia Macyra
05
Finland
2 institutions · 3 publicationsFinnish Institute of International Affairs
- The Nordic-Baltic Eight policy brief: NB8 and the drone challengeBrief15 Sept 2026Meeri Väätäinen
- The Nordic-Baltic Eight policy brief: Protecting critical undersea infrastructureBrief23 Jun 2026Meeri Väätäinen
Finnish Business and Policy Forum
- Eurooppalaisempi NatoCommentary11 Jun 2026Mikko Laakso
06
Qatar
2 institutions · 3 publicationsAl Jazeera Centre for Studies
- The Mecca Agreement from Idea to Practice: Deterrence, Institutionalisation and a New Security ArchitecturePublication9 Sept 2026Selçuk Aydın, Rashid Dar
- From Nuclear Deterrence to Desalination DeterrencePublication27 Jul 2026Hojjat Mianabadi
Middle East Council on Global Affairs
- NATO and the GCC: what lies ahead?Report17 Sept 2026
07
Czech Republic
1 institution · 2 publicationsPrague Security Studies Institute
- 2026 NATO Summer SchoolPublication15 Jul 2026
- 2026 NATO Summer SchoolPublication15 Jul 2026
08
India
1 institution · 2 publicationsObserver Research Foundation
- Anatomy of A Failed CeasefireReport13 Jul 2026Harsh V. Pant
- The NATO Ankara Summit: Make-or-Break (Again)?Report6 Jul 2026Guillaume Gandelin
09
Norway
1 institution · 2 publicationsPeace Research Institute Oslo
- Russia intensifies missile attacks on Kyiv ahead of NATO summitReportc. 13 Aug 2026
- Distributed deterrence: Europe’s new security logic and action planReportc. 22 Jun 2026
10
Australia
1 institution · 1 publicationsAsialink
- How Tokyo buys deterrence without buying defence parityPublication19 Sept 2026
11
Denmark
1 institution · 1 publications12
Germany
1 institution · 1 publicationsGlobal Public Policy Institute
- Strengthening Resilience Across NATOPublication7 Jul 2026Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi)
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